Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Winter Weather from the Pros



This partially prompted my decision to blog...

Click below to see it full size (and to make me feel better about uploading their picture)

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/topheadline/2009/WINTER2010USOverview.jpg

As you can see, something to get a mid-atlantic, OK, southerner's attention, especially since I live in the practical bulls-eye of the "cold and snowy" area. I also re-subscribed to accuweather pro today ($25 a month), which is a must if you are serious about following weather models as their models and variations are second to none, and the thoughts of Joe Bastardi as well. I'll post some of my other favorite site w/links later. And you will notice that I am a shameless accuweather promoter, they're really the best in the business. I also like the fact that they employ absolute weather nuts like Bastardi and Henry Margusity.

Anyhow, I know it's only October and the leaves are still on the trees here, but I hope their forcast lives up to its billing. Their main gist, if I can dumb it down enough, is that the trough axis this winter is going to be much further south than usual, and in combination with an el nino pattern and oscillation indeces that point to cold air blocking...we're in for some good times. In other words, cold+wet= snow.

It will also be interesting to see if the two systems coming through this weekend really prove to be close to the current model trends. People from NC to Maine, and possible peaks in VA could see the first flakes fly. That would be mid-October snow, not quite often you see that. Some in the mountains of PA and NY could see accumulations of 4-6". I'd place a bet that someone gets lucky and sees 8+" in the highest elevations, which will wreak havoc with leaves still on the trees. Back in 2001??, that was the cause for an interesting and damaging scenario in central NC during an early November ice storm. Never a good thing to have winter before the leaves fall. But I'm not complaining...