Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Change Is Good

After a few weeks of odd weather, from 80 degree days, to a nasty tropical nor'easter, it looks like the shift to a more typical winter pattern is on tap just in time for Thanksgiving. A look ahead at the Saturday after Thanksgiving: 0 line at 850mb is deep into the south and the GFS continues to show some sort of coastal low. Don't believe the map, it's 11 days out, but it does hint at what is coming...troughs return to the Eastern US.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

IDA Part Deux



Well, it might not still be named IDA, but the remnants have taken on a new life over the water east of the NC/VA coast. Waves of 23 feet! Check out the NDBC web page here: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov This shows all the offshore buoy reports. Winds up to 65mph and major coastal flooding and beach erosion. Not to mention plenty of rain all over the southeast (see above). Should be nicer for the weekend!

Sunday, November 8, 2009

IDA



Not a whole lot to say, other than a surprising end to a rather benign N Atlantic hurricane season. I do think, and some of the models back me up, that the remnants are going to go much farther north than the NHC/TPC forecast. So instead of meandering in GA/FL, the low will be in NC/VA on its way up the eastern seaboard in the Tuesday to Wed time-frame as it gets quasi-embedded in the front moving our way. So instead of sunny and 80 like this weekend, it will be 60, windy and rainy late Tuesday into Wed here in Cville. Like so...from the 00Z GFS



If I'm wrong,I guess you'll just have to deal with better weather. Hopefully the coast down south doesn't take too much of a beating...