Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Cold and Stormy


I'll analyze this weekends forecast when I get time. Overall, not that good.

This week at least brings 2 chances of wintry wx to west-central VA. First one is tomorrow, winter storm watch out for sleet/freezing rain. My thinking is it's a non-event for Charlottesville. WAA will scour out lower level cold, limiting any frz rain potential. Main impact might be some sleet initially, but that's it. Second system looks to be around Saturday. At this point, unsure the QPF amounts or levels of cold air. First guess is mainly snow for the mtns, mix here around cville, and rain east. If that's the case, and the southern stream does in fact make it this far north, likely to be much like this past weekend with highly variable snow amounts based on cold air available and precip onset.
The main story is the COLD. It will really feel like winter for the next week, with our max temps this week on Wednesday (50s) as the low pressure system moves past. Then back to 30s/40s with lows in the 20s. A very wild start to December to say the least.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Snow Is Coming




No major changes to my thinking right now. General area of 2-4" in West/Central VA. NC looks too warm for any significant accumulations, but flakes will definitely fly. Too much precip falling in warmer lower level air. I'll update with a final map tomorrow if need be.

Preliminary Snow Forecast for Saturday



Basic Thoughts:
NC- Rain changing to snow, not enough precip for any significant accumulations. Timing of cold air will be key.
VA- Central VA is the key spot with enough precip and cold air to accumulate. If banding develops as depicted on latest model runs, most likely to be between Charlottesville and Richmond, where some places could see 7" in a perfect world. Generally 2-4" to the east of the mountains into the Piedmont.

And I'm not forecasting for the mountains, FYI

Will update as we get closer.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

SNOW???




A lot of model disagreement, but the GFS continues to hint at the possibility of snow in the south and mid-atlantic late Friday into Saturday. Nothing firm yet, but the possibility is there. All depends on the track of the system moving up the East Coast at the same time arctic air invades. Can only wait and see. It would surely be one for the books, although the QPF at this point would only deliver 1 to 2 inches at most. Stay tuned.