Monday, January 18, 2010

Goodbye Warmth- Winter Storm Thursday

So check it. Complex winter storm developing for Late Wed/Thursday here in Cville. High bust potential because there isn't a lot of cold air around...BUT it still looks like marginal temperatures plus plenty of precip is going to lead to white stuff on the ground. As of right now, it looks to be a messy storm: rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Which combination and for how long will determine accumulations. The farther north and west you go from Charlottesville, the better chance for a snow/sleet mix. When I say marginal, I mean the difference in half a degree from ~5,000 ft (850mb) to the surface will determine the type of precipitation.

Best guess for Charlottesville right now: Rain late Wednesday turning to Sleet and Snow overnight. Total snow/sleet accumulation: 4". Again, high bust potential either way with 1" of liquid being the average model output. Stay tuned.

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