Saturday, February 20, 2010

Winter Is NOT over

Just wanted to put that headline out there. While we will see rain- if you can believe it- in Charlottesville on Monday, there are a few potential winter storms in the next 2 weeks. My prediction is we won't see the last of snow until the Ides of March (15th). That is, snow falling out of the sky. Right now things look interesting around Thursday of this week, and again around the 3rd of March. Will update as we get closer --and I get more work done.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Snow Monday

Just a quick update. Quick clipper system coming through on Monday. Looks like snow should fall from the afternoon into the early overnight accumulating 2-4". Will update if need be.

Monday, February 8, 2010

Tuesday-Wed Update

Models coming in a little wetter on each run. Gonna target 4-6" around here due to the increased QPF. Still risk sleet mixing in, cutting down on potential accumulations. Just what we need....more snow!

This weekend still looks like a no-go with the storm system staying well south, but I'm gonna keep an eye on it. Stay Tuned.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Snow Tuesday-Wed & Storm Recap

An impressive storm to say the least. Highest report I've seen was 40" in Colesville, MD. Officially received 16.8" here. I didn't measure because there was already snow on the ground, but suffice it to say we got enough. Areas north and west received more, as we would have if it didn't sleet as much as it did.

Short Term- Looking at a Snow/Sleet combo Tues PM-Wed AM. Accumulations will be highly dependent on how much sleet we see, but I expect around 4" total. The low pressure center will bomb off the coast up near DE/NJ so those areas will get pummeled.

Long range- Another low will track to our south this weekend. At this time, looks like it will stay south of VA/NC, but the potential is there for the track to shift further north depending on the speed of another upper level feature coming out of Canadia. Stay tuned.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Snow Map #2

No major changes. Generally expect 18" of snow around Charlottesville to DC area. Some spots will see more, depends on the exact track of the storm. NWS just upgraded us to a Winter Storm Warning, calling for 16-24", so we're generally on the same page. Certainly looking like an all time record-breaking SEASON ('95-'96), although not all time snowfall. Snow will begin to fall around daybreak-10AM tomorrow, and it will be nasty by the afternoon into Sat, then cold. Will update if need be. Stay tuned.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Preliminary Snow Forecast

Initial thoughts for Fri-Sat. Snow should start late afternoon in Cville. There's a chance some sleet/freezing rain could mix in at times, cutting down accumulations, but that's not possible to tell when and where at the moment. I'll update as we get closer.

Stay tuned.

Monday, February 1, 2010

Starting to Get Ridiculous

The year of weekend storms continues. I can't help but post the latest GFS precipitation forecast (00Z) run. This map shows expected precip, beginning during the day Friday through Saturday night. I won't get into details, but suffice it to say that if the model run is evenly somewhat accurate, Cville is in for another winter storm with around a foot of snow.

That doesn't count tomorrow, when we could get 3-4" if things work out right.

Why do they all have to be on the weekend though? The saying goes, the trend is my friend, and I believe the trend will continue, even after this weekend.

The Snow Keeps On Coming

Get your nerd glasses on Will. Above is a radar shot as of 830 PM EST showing what is going to bring a chance of snow to Virginia tomorrow and some light icing in NC. It's an interesting synoptic setup because there are 3 factors in play that will determine what our weather is like tomorrow. #1 is an upper level low in the Mid-West, #2 is an upper level trough and associated precip, and #3 is an area of surface low pressure that is developing and forecast to move up the coast towards VA before quickly moving east out to sea. Right now, #2 will be drawn/catch up to #3 and help the area of low pressure deepen (get stronger) as it moves up the coast. The question is, and none of the models show it, is whether #1, the upper low, will have any interaction with #2. If it did, I would expect an area of enhanced precipitation would set up somewhere in our general area as the low strengthens off the coat due to the increased vorticity and divergence aloft, or "phasing" of the systems. While I don't think #1 will catch up in entirety, I do think enough energy will be present to increase the meager precipitation amounts currently printed out by the models here in Charlottesville. The max I've seen so far is around .25". If that were snow, temps being marginal as they will be, it wouldn't be much, about 1" like the NWS is forecasting for late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. However, if the models aren't initializing the speed or strength or the lows and troughs, the precip amounts could be higher.

So in short: I'm going to go out on a limb and say the models are wrong. I think we will see approx 3" of snowfall here in Cville by Wed morning.

Also, the other storm is still on the table in a BIG way for this weekend. Stay tuned.