Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Fire and Ice

Some say the world will end in fire;
Some say in ice.
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.

-Robert Frost

Most likely my one and only poetic post - albeit not my words

Friday, September 10, 2010

Hints of Hugo As Igor Strengthens


I couldn't resist...

Thursday, September 9, 2010

2010 Summer Climate Summary & The Tropics

Required Knowledge/Note/Detailed Nerdiness: "Meteorological Summer" runs from June to August 31, so no, you're not crazy, summer is not officially over. The lunar/solar summer began June 21 (Summer Solstice) and officially ends September 22, @ 11:09 P.M. EDT (Fall Equinox).

Aside: As you nerdy egg balancing enthusiasts get ready...I'll spoil your fun...you can balance an egg (if you know what you're doing) any day of the year, not only on the equinoxes. What is an equinox you might ask, well - "an equinox occurs twice a year, when the tilt of the Earth's axis is inclined neither away from nor towards the Sun, the center of the Sun being in the same plane as the Earth's equator "(Wikipedia - yeah digging deep). The two are the Spring/Vernal, and Fall. Hence the egg theory...that isn't true. But by all means (Mom), carry on.

Back to The Headline: Here are the NWS statements that I've abbreviated to include Charlotte for Salisbury, NC and D.C. for Charlottesville. And, I've done simple calculations for Charlottesville about days over 90 - the NWS typically reports major city climates only because their records date back longer - but I'm not sure how long for each. Moral of the story: It was a HOT Summer. I know, I'm a nice guy for sharing this classified info with you. Here are the NWS summaries I have shortened to pertinent cities:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...WARMEST SUMMER EVER FOR ASHEVILLE AND GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG...

THIS WAS THE WARMEST SUMMER EVER RECORDED AT ASHEVILLE...WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 75.4 DEGREES.

THIS WAS THE SECOND WARMEST SUMMER EVER RECORDED AT CHARLOTTE..WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 81.1 DEGREES. THE RECORD WARMEST SUMMER IS 81.5 DEGREES IN 1993.  FOR THE MONTHS OF JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST...THERE HAVE BEEN 67 DAYS AT CHARLOTTE WITH HIGHS OF 90
DEGREES OR HIGHER.  THE HOTTEST DAYS WERE JULY 8 AND 25 WITH 101
DEGREES.

THIS WAS THE WARMEST SUMMER EVER RECORDED AT
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG...

TOMKO/OUTLAW

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
418 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...PRELIMINARY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SUMMER 2010...

RESULTS POSTED BELOW ARE TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN UNOFFICIAL SUMMARY.

FOR WASHINGTON DC...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER PERIOD...JUNE TO AUGUST...OF 2010 WAS THE
WARMEST ON RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DURING THIS 92 DAY PERIOD WAS 81.3F...OVER ONE DEGF HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON RECORD OF 80.0F RECORDED IN 1980.

FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD...SINCE 1872...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER MONTHS OF 2010 IN WASHINGTON AVERAGED OVER 90 DEGREES...90.2F. THE PREVIOUS WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER SEASON WAS 89.3F IN 1980.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AVERAGED 72.4F FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER
MONTHS OF 2010...WHICH WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD BY 1.6 DEGREES.

SO FAR THIS YEAR THROUGH AUGUST...WASHINGTON DC HAS EXPERIENCED 57
DAYS OF 90F OR GREATER...WHICH IS TIED WITH 1988 FOR THE MOST NUMBER
OF SUCH DAYS ON RECORD THROUGH AUGUST...AND IS 12 DAYS OFF THE
RECORD OF 67 90-DEGREE DAYS FOR AN ENTIRE YEAR THAT WAS SET IN 1980."

Charlottesville, based on NWS data from the airport, experienced 58 days of 90+ temps and the 7th, 24rh and 25th days of July were the warmest at 101. Of course this is ambient temperature, not factoring heat index.

There you have it - officially a hot summer in the South/Mid-Atlantic!

I''ll post more on the tropics some other time - right now TS Igor is far out in the Atlantic Ocean - but it definitely bears watching. Stay tuned.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Earl to Batter the NC OBX

Hurricane Earl as of 11pm EDT -

Latest from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) :

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES."

 What you need to know:

1. Earl is BIG and POWERFUL, Period. 
2. The Outer Banks of NC and the Delmarva Peninsula are the most vulnerable and likely areas to receive moderate to severe damage.
3. If you live on the Outer Banks - evacuate - but you're prob not reading my blog anyways. If you are planning on visiting soon - don't pack the car yet.
4. Wind damage is not the main concern - flooding and surf/beach erosion from the massive waves will be the major impact, and will be evident up the whole of the East Coast
5. Any deviation, east or west, of the expected track will have serious consequences - good news if Earl moves slightly east, much worse if west.
6. Good news - Earl is only 24 hours from the Outer Banks and forecast model consensus is pretty consistent keeping Earl's powerful winds offshore, hopefully it stays that way.
Also, Earl should weaken as it approaches.
7. Bad News - although not likely to be a direct hit/landfall, Earl will most likely cause permanent and drastic changes to the OBX and unprotected areas of the Delmarva Peninsula.

My General Forecast/Thoughts/Rehash :
   Starting Thursday afternoon into the overnight, conditions will deteriorate along the SC/NC/VA coast. The NC OBX will without a doubt sustain the heaviest damage - road(s) washed out,
Islands disconnected/cutoff when new inlets are cut by the enormous waves, etc. Generally think winds will be nominal, especially considering Earl is a cat 4, but wind gusts up to 100mph
likely if Earl passes where expected. Houses - even those deemed "Hurricane Proof" and survivors of past storms - gone. Earl is generating swells of 45-50ft near the center! Granted, the NE quadrant
where the worst waves and winds are will be to the east, but the speed and size will compensate instead. Other East Coast islands, peninsulas, etc will feel the wrath, but Earl should be weakening and heading N/NE and pulling away from the coast. Bottom Line - severe damage will occur but the areas will be limited - the potential is/was there for much worse.