Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Updated Christmas & After Snowfall Map

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Christmas Storm Snowfall Map

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Stronger. Further West. The Trend Is My Friend.

Forecast Update:
Higher Accumulations in Salisbury/Rowan

Expected Accumulation in Rowan County: 5"

Again, bulk of snow should be PM into overnight hours.

I'd like to make an NC accumulation map but limited to iPhone at the moment

Stay tuned for further updates.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Update on Xmas Snow

No MAJOR changes to my previous forecast, however, latest model runs of the GFS/NAM (18Z) and WRF have all placed the location of the surface low (see HPC depiction below) further west than the past 2 days or so.


Closer equals more precip here, and right now 1.5-2" call looks good when combined with the various other factors affecting accumulation. Timing call still on track with the bulk of snowfall late afternoon into the night. There is still a small chance that the energy (cold high pressure)  from the north is slower, allowing the southern low to strengthen enough to "bomb" out earlier, and it will be interesting to see what happens not only here, but along the eastern seaboard. A 50-100 mile deviation means snow or no snow for places like DC, NYC, Philly, Boston the I-95 corridor. In fact, the heaviest snowfall accumulation should be the coastal plain region in NC. More snow at the beach than here... Here is the latest NWS precipitation (QPF) forecast for the next 3 days combined:



The last factor that always wreaks havoc on operational forecasts of snowfall  is banding. This micro-scale phenomenon happens frequently in the NC Piedmont when low pressure starts to strengthen (deepen) off the coast. Any precipitation banding that does occur will make pinpoint accumulations even harder - guess we'll just have to wait and see. If you have any questions or want me to explain something use the comment section.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Looks Like...Less of a Snowstorm

I find it a little depressing to begin this winter weather blogging season (it's official now) without hyping a big snowstorm, especially when a few days ago it seemed Christmas 2011 would be the snowiest ever seen in Smallisbury and other locales in and around NC. But then I said to myself, self, no point letting the weather get you down, this is a time for celebration and enjoying the company of friends and family. No I didn't...let's be serious...I'm a bona-fide weather nerd and it's killing me that we ARE NOT going to have a Christmas snowstorm of epic proportions.

Glad to get that off my chest. Now, for the forecast: 


Expecting snow to fall in Salisbury beginning around noon (primarily in the afternoon) on Christmas Day into the evening before tapering off on Sunday AM. 

Accumulation: 1.5 - 2 inches. 

SNOW MAP AND UPDATES TO FOLLOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON CONDITION OF MY LIVER, UNLESS THERE IS REASON FOR DOING SO EARLIER. EXAMPLE: A 100 MILE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK. 
(DEAR SANTA...???)

My Weekend Forecast Coming Soon...