Monday, January 10, 2011

Final Forecast Notes: Earlier and Stronger

Latest models, radar, and 850mb flow all point towards increased precipitation amounts here in central NC. There is going to be a gradual decrease in amounts in a line from SW of Charlotte moving NNE as the flow subsides and energy transfers to the coast and forcing weakens.Here is the 6Z NAM output, which prints out almost close to .75" of liquid, and others have been trending similarly.




Snow is already falling in areas to the East and South of Salisbury and I expect snow to begin in earnest this morning (8AM) as compared to previous thought of noon.While the radar looks/will look impressive, it will take some time to moisten the atmosphere as the dewpoint is currently around 0. Once saturated, expect snow to fall most of the day before a late switch to primarily freezing rain/drizzle, which will last into Tues AM.

Final Forecast for Rowan: Generally 5-6" of snow with heavier amounts possible towards the southern and western ends of the county. This will be covered by freezing rain/drizzle ("glaze") overnight into tomorrow, compacting the snow and making conditions more hazardous, especially on roadways.