Sunday, January 9, 2011

Jan 10th Winter Storm Forecast

General Outline = Complex Event.

Expect snow to begin around noon on Monday Jan 10 and continue until approx midnight before changing to sleet briefly and then freezing rain/drizzle overnight and tapering off Tuesday morning.

My Current Forecast for Salisbury/Rowan: 
4" of snow before changeover to freezing rain/sleet mix which will at least put a glaze on everything as surface temperatures stay below 32 until afternoon Tuesday.

While this might not be a monster of a storm, its impact will be felt for a while. Temperatures will remain cold throughout the week, minimizing snow melt and refreezing every night. It should also start during the workday Monday so anyone driving home might be dealing with snow covered roads depending on the exact time of onset.

The trickiest part of the forecast is two-fold:
1. Total precipitation that falls
2. Timing of warmer air moving in aloft - and the corresponding change from snow to sleet then freezing rain.

These two variables will become clearer in the next day. I'll update tomorrow - when you should be out getting your bread and milk. I'll be on the beer aisle.