Monday, January 24, 2011

Non-News Flash: Rain Headed Our Way...Snow Possible at the End?

Soaking rain starts late tomorrow and continues through Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation amounts approaching 1" area wide. Should warm up into the 40's tomorrow as rain doesn't begin in earnest until later in the PM. Wednesday looks to be delightful with heavy overcast, rain, and temperatures around 40.

With that said, the last vestige of hope for fellow snow lovers out there is the scenario I alluded to in my previous post - the passage of the mid/upper level low troughs as the surface storm begins to pull away/up the coast - could bring a departing change over from rain to snow. This could happen (although it is rare in the west-central NC Piedmont) if the upper lows pass near enough, allowing cold air to be pulled close enough to the surface to overcome the warming that will have occurred between approx the 1000-800mb level.

This is the whole reason the storm is going to be a cold rain...warm air in the mid levels. If you want to look at Skew-T representations/explanations, go back a few posts and read the rain/snow section.

So what if? Ultimately, nothing major that I can foresee at this point. The latest runs of the European/NAM/and GFS all indicate the upper level lows will pass in our vicinity. If they are close, we could see a 6 hour period (Wed Evening/Night) of a rain snow mix changing to snow and accumulating on grassy surfaces. If we get to freezing overnight before streets dry, we could see icy spots Thursday morning.

I'll keep you updated.