Thursday, January 6, 2011

A Surprise Snow in The Making?

While tomorrow's forecast looks relatively lackluster in terms of snowfall, it seems mother nature might have something up her sleeve. Below is a shot of a high resolution model (WRF/NMM) indicating an area of enhanced (heavier) precipitation tomorrow afternoon/evening just to our east, but in the vicinity...and another short range model, the NAM has followed suit, increasing total liquid (2nd). Their respective 36 hour precip forecasts:

High-Res WRF/NMM

NAM



The NWS in Raleigh has jumped on this and issued Winter Weather advisories for all the surrounding counties to our East and North and I expect ours (Greenville-Spartanburg) to follow suit shortly.

My thoughts: We will be on the western fringe, of the heavier band, so precip will be less and arrive early afternoon, Rain changing to snow around 5 and accumulating approx 2", primarily on grassy/elevated surfaces. Once it starts to rain, the temperature will drop as the column cools, so it's a very tricky scenario. If the precip arrives later, better odds of accumulation and vice-verse. I think a small area to our East will get lucky and find themselves with ~5 inches on the ground. With temps falling into the 20's tomorrow night, roads will freeze if any slush builds up.

If tomorrow is a bust, don't worry - only a prelude to the next few weeks. Stay tuned...