Saturday, December 7, 2013

Holy Gap - Storm Warnings & Advisories

Everyone in NW Piedmont should expect to see freezing rain overnight. Even Rowan - albeit lighter.

Trivia - what county is not under a winter weather advisory / warning that starts with R and the county seat is Salisbury?


Friday, December 6, 2013

A Warm Winter Storm Watch (Davie County)

Hard to believe when it's 70 - but temps will be headed down by approx 40 degrees tomorrow into Sunday. 

Prompted NWS to issue Winter Storm Watch for Davie County - freezing rain possible overnight Saturday into Sun A.M.  Does not cover Rowan at this time but expect to see a freezing rain advisory at a minimum tomorrow night.



Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Saturday night through
Sunday evening...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Winter Storm Watch...which is in effect from late Saturday
night through Sunday evening.

* Locations...parts of the northern foothills and Piedmont of
 North Carolina.

* Hazards...freezing rain producing damaging accumulations of 
 ice.

* Timing...freezing rain will develop from the south on Saturday
 night...then change over to rain by Sunday afternoon.

* Accumulations...up to a quarter inch of ice.

* Impacts...the heavy accumulations of ice from freezing rain may
 knock down limbs and power lines...create power outages... and
 make travel hazardous.

* Temperatures...in the lower 30s.

* Winds...northeast 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

Not sure how much I'll update on this particular event but all signs point to an interesting winter here in the Piedmont of NC. 

* For any confused readers I live in Mocksville now so excuse any new found, I'm so far-to-the-north bias...

Thursday, April 4, 2013

You May Be Wandering: Posting from The Farm Files ~ Tuscany, Part Two

You May Be Wandering: Posting from The Farm Files ~ Tuscany, Part Two

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

2013 - Snow No Mo(re)?


I think this map is a pretty good depiction of where the snow will be and won't be by Wed-Thurs. Albeit New England and SE VA will also have snow.

The computers at CIPS agree (picture) as the upcoming storm shows strong similarities (analogous) to Feb 7 2010. I remember it well b/c I lived in Charlottesville, VA at the time. 

Anyways, looks like a chilly rain tomorrow - possibly some T-storms tomorrow night.
A chance the NC Piedmont (read: counties around and north of Rowan) might see a snow shower by Wednesday but that is about it in the Winter Wx Dept. 

Accumulating snow will start near the VA/NC line and points North. 

Snow in the Mid/Northern NC mountains Tue PM - Thursday: should see 12"+ at Mt. Mitchell and other high country areas.

If for some reason the low pressure system decides to form a few hundred miles south of the NC/VA coastline I'll probably blog again. But it won't...

Monday, March 4, 2013

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Snowstorm Next Week; Fact or Fiction AccuWeather.com

I've put a link below to a recent video from AccuWx Forecaster Bernie Rayno - he explains the process (calculations and miscalculations) of long range weather models and why they change large scale features and sensible weather forecasts from day to day.

 ® 2013 AccuWeather, Inc.

If you watch, he explains in detail that it might, possibly, could, maybe, has happened before, might not though....snow next week.

Next Week - Snow in the Offing?

Cloud guessers all forecast a state of morass,

Whether wintry weather will - or will not - come to pass.

Be aware: soon the atmosphere's primed to amass,

And I think we're in for an icy cold blast; 

But remember such things are always mere gas.



Stay Tuned. Out.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Not Impressed

Winter Wx Advisory overnight into the AM. I feel pretty confident we might see some sleet, possibly light freezing rain, but warm above 32° (if we get that low) early AM.

{SEE BOTTOM LEFT - FROM NWS)


Might update later - go do your homework.

TPB Out.

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Saturday Afternoon Update (Feb 16th)

I know... Where is the snow? Mainly east of here near Raleigh.

Thoughts: Wait for it... Still think 1"-2" with heaviest amount in the E/SE portions or Rowan.

Heavier band of precip starting to show on radar to our West as the upper level trough/forcing swings through. Summary of my thoughts in picture form, courtesy of the Raleigh NWS.


Expect a period of moderate snow late afternoon/evening and then it's over. That's when snow will stick - hopefully quick.

TPB Out.

Friday, February 15, 2013

Late Update

My forecast for Saturday  - 1 or 2" of snow is still on track. Eastern part of the county on the higher side...could see 3". Not epic...

The NWS has 1" forecasted as seen below. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory soon.
NWS Forecast as of  10PM Shows .9"  

Only change is the timing - rain showers starting late morning - and should quickly turn to snow as the atmosphere wet-bulbs down. A quick event, should be over ~ 9 or 10 PM. Cold Sunday/Sun PM.
Surface Low Track


Raw numbers for KRUQ (Rowan Airport) on latest GFS model run say .19" here. Convert 10:1 and take off for rain = .15" of rain / 1.5" of snow. Just an example of one model run. East of here, the precip amounts increase, and the NE coast/ beaches of NC should get more snow.

I will post if anything changes forecast wise. Enjoy the snow. Out for now.

Here comes SNOW - is it Lust or a Bust?

Forecasts be a changin'. Models are all placing the low closer to the coast - more moisture and chances for snow. Some graphics below from NOAA>

My forecast as of 12pm: 1-2" of snow

Time: Between Saturday PM (say 6pm) and early Sunday (before light).

So, break out the snow-blowers folks - will update later

Out for now.


FRIDAY NIGHT / SAT / SUN.....SNOW?

Looks like snow showers are possible tomorrow night, early AM Saturday, and then again late Sat. Weird system - could surprise or demise depending on the forecast(er). Low pressure is prognosticated to form over the NC Piedmont and head for the Delmarva P where it will strengthen significantly and head towards Maine. Unless the low develops further West/SW, or strengthens further south (NC Coast), chance of snow here in Salisbury is equal or less than a dusting. Here is current precip forecast through Sunday from the GFS



However, all the major weather models are trending towards more precip around the area - if trend continues and verifies, the chance of snow, and amount will rise. Still talking tenths of an inch - so no blizzard coming even if the outliers verified. Here is the NAM, same time (more precip/closer).


Also, an interesting site for winter weather lovers is CIPS. They mathematically compares (called analogs) forecasts from the NAM model to past events - similar weather pattern/atmospherics are ranked and you can see the events from different angles/results/nerdy stuff. Click on it and you will understand more...

Friday, February 8, 2013

Yowza Bowza - A Nor'easter For the Records....

Satellite Showing Both Storms Headed To the NE Morning Feb 8th (Courtesy of NOAA )
I don't often post on weather events of little concern / no impact around here, primarily because it is depressing and disheartening to a snow lover to talk about snow elsewhere...BUT the Nor'easter taking shape (literally) and headed for the record books today into tomorrow night is worth it. Put another way, if we ever saw the ginormous amounts of snow that will fall in New England, the South would be paralyzed for weeks/months etc. This begs the question (I think) of how much snow will fall in the Northeast through Sunday. Massachusetts. 2/3 of Maine, RI , CT, NY, VT, NH, NYC, Eastern PA - measuring in feet and likely yardsticks. Most areas will see 18-24" with 3 and possibly 4 feet across Eastern NY, NH, MA, and Maine.
Current Warning - Blizzard and Winter Storm Warnings cover the NE

Here is why we (big we) should see a Nor'easter of possible record breaking proportions. Satellite above, and radar below explain best - show two systems moving towards the same spot. Low pressure now off of VA/Delmarva (brought us rain) will deepen / strengthen rapidly as the northern stream low across the Great Lakes "catches up" / transfers more energy towards the coast, causing cyclogenesis. "Bombing Out" is the colloquial term.

This will happen off the coast of NY/NJ later today/tonight. Once intensified, some areas will see snow fall at rates of 3-4" PER HOUR. At the bottom are a few weather models showing this "bombing" and hurricane strength low pressure system (but not).
Storm Track(s). Green Low Pressure Area Will be the Nor'easter After Northern Energy Catches Up.
Northern Low / Wave Moving East
Southern Energy / Low Pressure
Model Forecast Showing Deepening System off the NE Coast

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Update: Tornado Watch Issued

Tornado Watch

Until 8:00 PM EST on January 30, 2013

http://wxug.us/knc0

For the Nerds Out There:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION......WRN CAROLINAS...
STRONGEST HIGH-LEVEL DIFLUENCE...DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY BEGIN
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
...THROUGH 20-22Z. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE MORE VIGOROUS PORTION OF THE ONGOING
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WHICH COULD STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE SMOKY/BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION COULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN WIND FIELDS IN EXCESS OF
60 KTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WITH
THE SQUALL LINE. IT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE...WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TO
EXTREME NEAR SURFACE SHEAR.

Hail No But Winds Yes

Not the usual type of winter storm to affect us (will see the effect later) this afternoon as a squall line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will push through the area late this afternoon. Expect at least a thunderstorm watch going into effect soon, possibly tornado watch as conditions are slightly favorable for tornadic activity later. Already a wind advisory in effect, and if you've been outside lately you'll know why - it's windy... Hope everyone picked up things that blow away in strong winds, including small children.

 Here's s look at current watches and outlooks issued by the Storm Predicition Center (SPC). I have a link to it on the right which you can check later to see what's going on.

MAIN THREAT = WIND

TORNADOES POSSIBLE

WWA'S (WATCHES, WARNINGS, ADVISORIES) IN EFFECT AT 12:30PM (EST)


STORM REPORTS SO FAR SHOWING LOTS OF WIND DAMAGE TO OUR WEST



RADAR: ACTIVITY STILL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH BEFORE MAIN AREA ARRIVES AROUND 4-5PM 


LAST, BUT NOT LEAST, LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NWS WITH EMPHASIS ADDED:

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LINE
OR BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 70 MPH
RANGE. IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF
TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH
LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. ISOLATED FLOODING COULD DEVELOP ALONG A
FEW STREAMS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LINE WILL THEN MOVE
OUT ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS
IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

OUT HERE.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Friday Snow = Weak, Slick Sauce

With a resurgence of cold and dry high pressure (especially relative to normal) building into the region today - current wind says it all - tomorrow's winter wx event is looking less and less likely to be much of an "event".

What to expect: Snow Showers beginning around noon, with total accumulation by sunset around 1", with sleet and freezing rain mixing in towards evening. Total QPF (precip) is going to be slim, maybe .15" on the optimistic side.

This means if most falls as snow 1" is definitely possible (10:1 ratio) but if sleet or freezing rain predominates that will negate snowfall, and more importantly create a nuisance as far as travel/roads are concerned.

To recap: expect approx 1" of snow to fall with sleet/freezing rain at the end to put an icy glaze on top. However, with temperatures staying at or below freezing, although a minor event, expect it to impact the end of your workday and make for a slick commute home.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Will The CAD Be Bad?

Cold Air Damming (CAD) winter weather event is the headline for Friday. I expect the NWS will issue watches or advisories for the area by morning. Here in the greater Salisbury Metro, it looks like we will see a combination of snow to sleet to freezing rain on FRIDAY - beginning around noon - and ending around sunset.

Exact precip amounts are still the tricky part and will determine how much of an impact the slippery slop will have. Suffice it to say the weather will not be pretty and with temperatures below freezing expected even at warmest period of the day, all that falls should be frozen or will freeze on contact.

Expect a short day and a slippery way...home. More details tomorrow. Out for now.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Eyes on Friday

I won't be verbose because the details are not discernible yet but I fully expect wintry weather on Friday possibly into Saturday AM. Most likely not a big event because the storm system will not be very moist, but could surprise folks, especially if it turns icy. Regardless of any storm, the coldest air of the season is here and will stick around. Should see lows bottom out around 14° later this week so make sure your pipes don't freeze (self...).

Stay tuned. Out Here.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Winter - On Our Doorstep

Rest assured, everything looks on track for snowfall. Low Pressure (occlusion actually) has just passed to our south and east along the border near Charlotte.

Easy way to tell: barometric pressure and dropping dew-point - this from my wx station recently:


Water Vapor Image


Still expecting the 8:36 PM switch, so 2 hours approx.

Rain should ease up for a bit and then begin again heavily and the harder it falls the sooner we switch over as cold air is drawn down into the lower levels more rapidly. Thunder-snow not out of the question honestly.

Snowing in Boone and Jefferson (around 3500') and the line between rain and snow should move eastward rather quickly as banding precip sets up. If you look at radar now and say it's all gone, just wait.

Sounds Of Silence

Not much to add to my initial thoughts yesterday. Still expect an average 4" of snow by tomorrow morning here in the Salisbury - Rowan Megalopolis.

Also noticed the National Weather Service guys read my blog - Winter Storm Warning in effect starting late afternoon/tonight. Wannabes.

Main impact/question will be amount of accumulation on roads - school / work / etc. It will be no bueno on the roads for school buses but the rest of you (us) will probably have to wait and see. However, the Rowan County Courthouse will always be open so no worries there...

On a positive note, the Blanton Law Firm is always open to help you if we can. If, for example you:

T-Bone someone's car while doing a mean 5mph (because you can't drive when the roads are dry) - Call from your cell because you were probably on it anyways.

Commit a criminal act because you are at home with your spouse and/or children for 4 days straight. Call from jail.

You act and/or are a juvenile and throw snowballs at someone and they commence to seeing just how big a boy you are... Call from the hospital.

Obviously I hope none of this occurs, but I'll throw that in there because I might be a little late to work because I'm still looking at weather so got to run.

Again, the BLF's # is 704-637-1100. *Only for legal matters not for personal forecasts.

Hope you all enjoy. Will try and update if need be this afternoon.

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

NWS Issues Winter Storm Watch

From the National Weather Service:

Winter Storm Watch

Expires 6:00 AM EST on January 18, 2013
Statement as of 4:06 PM EST on January 16, 2013

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
late Thursday night...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Thursday afternoon
through late Thursday night.

* Locations... the western Piedmont and parts of the foothills of
North Carolina.

* Hazards... heavy snow.

* Timing... rain changing to snow during the early evening hours.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches... mainly on
grassy surfaces.

* Impacts... heavy wet snow may cause a few trees to fall and pull
down power lines. Travel problems and reduced visibility also
expected. Black ice late at night.

* Temperatures... falling through the 30s late in the day.

* Winds... north 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.Weather.Gov/gsp.



Thump In The Night - Snow Forecast

I'll be brief. Yes, think it will snow overnight Thursday into Friday.

Why: Upper level low passes to our SE and deformation zone forms over western NC

Read: Snow falls heavily but quickly. Probably a 4-5 hour event & you'll be asleep.


Low Track

Forecast Snowfall Accumulation: 4" (Rowan County)


There you have your thump in the night. I'll post later for the nerdy crowd/myself.

P.S. Do your homework for Friday anyways




Tuesday, January 15, 2013

70°, You Said You Would Write...

Dear 70°,
 It feels like you left a month ago already. Apparently it has only been 24 hours. Still, no cards? No worries here. I'm over you already. I've moved on (sound familiar???). This probably doesn't surprise you because of the obvious lies you told me about sticking around for a while.
  Oh, My Dr. says that the extra therapy is NOT related at all to you - preexisting condition (shout-out to my man B.O in Washington!!!). Anyways, that's all I have to say. You have my cell, so if you're around this spring I probably won't answer...
  Gotta go see the new guy in town. He's supposed to be even cooler than the other side of the pillow. So, like, whatever. Later.