Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Update: Tornado Watch Issued

Tornado Watch

Until 8:00 PM EST on January 30, 2013

http://wxug.us/knc0

For the Nerds Out There:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION......WRN CAROLINAS...
STRONGEST HIGH-LEVEL DIFLUENCE...DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY BEGIN
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
...THROUGH 20-22Z. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE MORE VIGOROUS PORTION OF THE ONGOING
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WHICH COULD STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE SMOKY/BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION COULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN WIND FIELDS IN EXCESS OF
60 KTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WITH
THE SQUALL LINE. IT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE...WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TO
EXTREME NEAR SURFACE SHEAR.