Thursday, July 3, 2014

Hurricane Arthur: (Quick) NC Visit

Folks at the coast will be dealing with a strengthening Category 2 Hurricane Arthur. Outer Banks should bear the brunt of it as usual and flooding and lots of beach erosion looks definite as you can see the ominous approach. However, it should lift / move quickly NE as it nears the coast.


Negligible impact here in the Piedmont as we are squeezed between Arthur's air flow and the approaching cold front.
 Last point, latest satellite shows eyewall like feature but that could be a trick of dry air or banding. Will be interesting to see. Very warm water to fuel the fire. 

Sunday, June 29, 2014

Tropics Firing Up: Soon Near You




NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

corrected tropical depression development status

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine,
Florida, is gradually becoming better defined as it moves slowly
southward to southwestward. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally favorable, a tropical depression is expected to form
during the next day or two. However, the system's proximity to dry
air could inhibit significant development until environmental
conditions become more conducive by late Tuesday while the low
meanders offshore of the Florida east coast.  The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon has been canceled, and the flight has
been rescheduled for Monday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
Latest Infrared (Not Typical Coloring) from GOES:
 


Tuesday, April 29, 2014

PENNWEATHER:TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL: Collision Course?

PENNWEATHER:TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL: Collision Course?: Interesting forecast discussion by the National Weather Service office in Greenville-Spartanburg that covers our area. Severe weathe...

Collision Course?




Interesting forecast discussion by the National Weather Service office in Greenville-Spartanburg that covers our area. Severe weather possible several times this week. According to the National Weather Service we could be looking at nighttime severe storms as well which obviously pose more danger when people are asleep and not tuning into the weather happenings because -they're sleeping.

This is part of the discussion, go to NWS for the full scientific forecast discussion and get your weather nerd on after picture time.



SYNOPSIS...
A WET AND STORMY PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

I particularly like the collision course wording below, hence the title

Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/... as of 235 PM Sunday...nothing in the new guidance to change earlier thinking that we are on a collision course with a very wet and very stormy pattern during the late Monday to Wednesday time frame. Important details such as the timing of enhanced severe thunderstorm threats...and storm total rainfall...still remain in doubt.


Sunday, March 23, 2014

Spring BUST and BOMB?

Spring Blizzard Threatens Eastern New England, Atlantic Canada



Chances fizzling here for anything appreciable as nor'easter bombs up - in the nor'east.



Hilarious video by Bernie Rayno on the accuweather site right now. Check it out.

Saturday, March 22, 2014

Snow Ahead? March 23rd & 24th, 2014

Latest NWS WPS MODEL DISCUSSION:

MGUIDANCE EVALUATION... MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD [CONSENSUS OF MODELS SHOW] RAPID SFC DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OFF THE EAST COAST TUE-WED. AN AVERAGE OF GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAS BEEN CLOSING IN ON A TRACK JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS OF EARLY WED... WHICH HAS BEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT CENTER OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND ECMWF MEANS OVER RECENT DAYS... THOUGH SOME GFS RUNS INCL THE 00Z VERSION TODAY MAY BE SOMEWHAT FAST. ADJUSTMENT OF THE 00Z CMC TO THIS PRIMARY CLUSTER LEAVES THE FARTHER WWD UKMET IN A CONSIDERABLE MINORITY AS ONLY SIX MEMBERS FROM THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE PACKAGES COMBINED DEPICT A SFC TRACK TO THE W OF 70W AS OF 12Z WED. 

STILL A MORE WRN TRACK CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS SOME IMPORTANT SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAY NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WITHIN 12-24 HRS OF THE EVENT. AT THE VERY LEAST THERE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A VERY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND ULTIMATELY VERY DEEP SYSTEM SUPPORTED BY A COLD NEG TILT TROUGH ALOFT AND EMBEDDED COMPACT UPR LOW FORMING JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY WED. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET DEPICTED QUITE AS DEEP IN MANUAL PROGS... EVOLUTION ALOFT COULD WELL SUPPORT THE 960-965 MB CNTRL PRESSURES SEEN IN THE LATEST. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC RUNS VALID AT 12Z WED. 

Read: Nor'Easter possible. We are still in the forecast gray zone. 

However, I believe points (including Rowan and points North) will see snow Late Mon/Tues. Any amount still TBD. Stay tuned. Out here.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Stubborn Winter - A parting shot?



Perhaps not on this scale...but winter will be back next Monday after another (actual) Spring-like few days with temps reaching 70's by Saturday. Expect temps in the 30s/40s on Monday with wintry wx possible if two moist systems rendezvous around that same time.

Details sketchy this far out so use the refresh button. Out here.

TPB

Thursday, March 6, 2014

NWS Hoists the Winter Whether Flag

Looks iffy - check back later (if time permits) to see my thoughts. Further north you are, better chance for what should be primarily a sleet / light freezing rain event. Very marginal temps so doubt it will be worse than the NWS states.

 LOCATIONS...

THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH

  CAROLINA. 


* HAZARDS...

ACCUMULATING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.


* TIMING...

PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER MAINLY TO SLEET THIS

  EVENING...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS

  ON FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN SHORTLY

  AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.


* ACCUMULATIONS...

SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH. ICE

  ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT UP TO

  TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE SOUTH MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS DAVIE

  COUNTY AND NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY.


* IMPACTS...

SLIPPERY ROADS FROM A COMBINATION OF SLEET AND

  FREEZING RAIN. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE

  A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.


* TEMPERATURES...

DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT.


* WINDS...

NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Arctic Plunge

Very interesting weather tomorrow. Morning sprinkles with temps dropping some 20-30 degrees (!!) rapidly after noontime with rain changing to sleet in Northern parts of the Piedmont. 

Rain and sleet elsewhere, with temperatures falling into the mid 30s and 20s overnight meaning slick roads highly possible over much of the area.

I expect winter weather advisories to be posted for Northern Piedmont County's such as David, Iredell, Davidson etc. with overnight WWA's across the Piedmont  for black ice as there should be a flash freeze of sorts if the precip stays around - which it should. So for those of you in school, I would expect a delay in the morning on Tuesday. 

Overall, not that much in the way of winter weather, but still a dramatic drop in temperatures, from the 50s high 40s into the 30s and then 20s within a matter of hours. Trust me, you'll notice it... 

Welcome to March, more winter weather possible towards the end of the week

Out for now. 

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Light Looms in the Dark

8-10". Wait for it. Won't be over until Thursday AM. Starts tomorrow morning with bulk in the PM and overnight. Get out your shovels.

More to follow