Saturday, March 22, 2014

Snow Ahead? March 23rd & 24th, 2014

Latest NWS WPS MODEL DISCUSSION:

MGUIDANCE EVALUATION... MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD [CONSENSUS OF MODELS SHOW] RAPID SFC DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OFF THE EAST COAST TUE-WED. AN AVERAGE OF GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAS BEEN CLOSING IN ON A TRACK JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS OF EARLY WED... WHICH HAS BEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT CENTER OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND ECMWF MEANS OVER RECENT DAYS... THOUGH SOME GFS RUNS INCL THE 00Z VERSION TODAY MAY BE SOMEWHAT FAST. ADJUSTMENT OF THE 00Z CMC TO THIS PRIMARY CLUSTER LEAVES THE FARTHER WWD UKMET IN A CONSIDERABLE MINORITY AS ONLY SIX MEMBERS FROM THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE PACKAGES COMBINED DEPICT A SFC TRACK TO THE W OF 70W AS OF 12Z WED. 

STILL A MORE WRN TRACK CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS SOME IMPORTANT SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAY NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WITHIN 12-24 HRS OF THE EVENT. AT THE VERY LEAST THERE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A VERY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND ULTIMATELY VERY DEEP SYSTEM SUPPORTED BY A COLD NEG TILT TROUGH ALOFT AND EMBEDDED COMPACT UPR LOW FORMING JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY WED. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET DEPICTED QUITE AS DEEP IN MANUAL PROGS... EVOLUTION ALOFT COULD WELL SUPPORT THE 960-965 MB CNTRL PRESSURES SEEN IN THE LATEST. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC RUNS VALID AT 12Z WED. 

Read: Nor'Easter possible. We are still in the forecast gray zone. 

However, I believe points (including Rowan and points North) will see snow Late Mon/Tues. Any amount still TBD. Stay tuned. Out here.