Sunday, March 1, 2015

Freezing Rain This Morning


Winter Wx Advisories have been hoisted for the overnight hours from 3AM - 5PM tomorrow for about a tenth of an inch of freezing rain and minor sleet accumulation.

Davie and Rowan counties under WWA's - either the same or Freezing Rain Advisories out for the majority of NC. Only difference being the NWS thinks it is possible some sleet/snow mixes in at the beginning in WWA counties and just freezing rain in others - talking very minimal before turns to freezing rain, which will also be minimal.

However, if enough precip falls it could make bridges/roads icy so be careful in the morning. Most likely just a tree branch / elevated surfaces ice glaze expected.

The NWS forecast for Rowan/Davie (GSP) has issued the following accumulation / forecast map, which lists Farmington as the top ice winner with expected .11" and Salisbury close but a mere hundredth off... Right...


So mainly nuisance type event with temps rising above freezing and therefore erasing any ice by the mid-afternoon if not sooner.

Current temps are below 32º now most places or will be per wet bulb temps. 


Here is the WPC Winter Weather Statement and map concerning the chances of having .25: of ice or greater - not much.  Only expect .1-.2" freezing rain overnight and tomorrow morning mainly.

DESPITE THE RETREATING HIGH AND NOT VERY STRONG WARM NOSE WITH  FLAT SYSTEM... ARCTIC/SHALLOW AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG AND COULD REPRESENT THE THREAT OF ICING FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO THE NRN MID-ATL STATES. ITS THE CORRIDOR WEST OF I95 THATS MOST WORRISOME ESPECIALLY FROM WRN NC THROUGH SWRN VA INTO THE DC/BAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO SERN PA. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS HERE ON QPF AND A BLEND OF 12Z THERMAL PROFILES FOR A .10 TO .25 ACCUMULATIONS FROM CLT TO PHL

Finally, the NWS Advisory Text if you click to read more. Out here. Be safe.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Snowfall / Report Map

NWS GSP Snow Reports

Thief in the Night is Gone Baby Gone


It went thump overnight but not as much as needed to see 6" area wide.  Reports aren't in yet this AM (officially) but 4-5" is more common around most of the central/NW Piedmont. Measured 4.75 at our farm but it is also snowing again moderately. 

This too shall pass. My headline sticks, what you see is what you get with perhaps a dusting on top of that.
The storm is still cranking up in Virginia and East from the Triangle to the coast, but moving rapidly east northeast and will be off the coast by midmorning.

Seems like most places struggled to reach six-inch mark not due to lack of precipitation but because of marginally cold air - standard liquid to snow ratio is .10 of precip makes 1"  of snow. Around   CLT metro saw reports of rain and sleet mixing in so they were probably averaging more of about 6 to 1 ratio which makes a big difference.

 You can see from my photos and probably from your window that the snow was heavy and there aren't tens of  thousands without power across the state and 2000 in Rowan last I saw. 



I'm off to be a nerd and measure snowfall at some other places around here so I have no more time for you right now.  I would appreciate it if you would leave a comment on Facebook or my blog telling me how much snow and where measured. Don't worry mom, you don't need to, I'll text you.

Be safe. Enjoy the snow. The courthouses in Rowan and Davie County are closed so be careful out. There could be lawyers lurking anywhere...




Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Rare - Heavy Snow Rates of 1-2" per Hour

 The Storm Prediction Center (SPC)  in Oklahoma issues mesoscale discussions for heavy winter precipitation. Typically we see the above kind of weather highlight / discussion during possible tornado watches and other severe weather events. 

They issued this not too long ago - 8PM - talks about the heavy snow rates you are seeing outside your window now. One possibly 2+ inch snow rates per hour for a few hours. 

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN SC AND CNTRL NC

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 260055Z - 260700Z

   SUMMARY...A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN SC SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL
   SNOW AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CNTRL NC THROUGH 07Z. SNOWFALL RATES
   OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
   NRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WEAKENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
   ERN NC/VA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
   EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
   CONUS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BROAD
   AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
   LOW EXTENDS FROM MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NC/SC.

   OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN SC AS OF 00Z INDICATE NEAR-FREEZING SFC
   TEMPERATURES...AND RECENT NSSL MPING REPORTS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW
   MIX IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE
   LOW/MID-LEVELS CONTINUES. AS THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES NEWD INTO
   CNTRL NC WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...
   COOLING AND MOISTENING OF THE DRY SFC-700 MB LAYER EVIDENT IN THE
   00Z GSO SOUNDING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM A
   RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW ACROSS CNTRL NC THROUGH 07Z. STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW
   WITH RATES OF 1 IN/HR LIKELY. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FROM
   NRN MS/AL/GA...AND SREF PROBABILITIES...LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
   RATES OF 2+ IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ..GLEASON.. 02/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP 

FINAL FORECAST: N.C. Piedmont 6"+ Tonight - Thurs AM

Quick and dirty: Rowan / Davie County / NC Piedmont will have 6 inches of snowfall with higher amounts likely closer to Charlotte averaging 8 inches. Banding of snow will be a major player as heavier amounts will be seen. Deformation zone could occur early Thursday morning and add 1 to 2 inches of additional snow which is likely on the north east side of the Piedmont. This is very similar (yet better...) to the National Weather Service forecast from all 3 WFO's that forecast as well as WPC thoughts as shown on snow progs below.

So, 6 to 8 inches overall is a safe bet - as usual with heavier and potentially convective precip, snow amounts will vary within small distances.


Generally, only change has been a small northward movement of low / precip and corresponding increase in precip amounts.


Tuesday, February 24, 2015

It's Go For Snow


Here in Farmington we had an epic snow this AM: .9" Yep, enough to shut 'er down by Southern standards. Perhaps the (always) tuned in snow-haters and even a lost Yank perusing this - shall we say, little pearl of  meteorological erudition - might scoff at such a mighty snowfall they should not and cannot argue the proverbial "timing is everything" factor. 



So, as I was greeting the colossal snowfallen morning with my wife this AM I somehow found myself semi watching the local news - quite the rarity for this guy - I suddenly felt a twinge of "oh no I busted the forecast" as the continuous blare of reporters and TV mets suddenly had me full of a fear only a wx nerd knows. Was it possible that just next door (Forsyth etc) there had been a raging blizzard occurring in the wee hours? What had I missed? Why the snow rip-off in Davie? 

Fortunately for me, this painfully slow and seriously muddled thought process ended when I opened my eyes to stare into the box full of on the scene Jim Canboreme-esque hype reporters and saw that the snow was just like mine. So, I took a nap.

To be fair, W-S did have 1.5" according to one brave reporter risking it all to bring it to us live... 

Moral, none. Point, short. Time you spent getting there: depends on reading speed and how well you know me. To wit (stretching it): if the roads/ground temps are close or below freezing - all snow that falls sticks to said roads. 

In this snowy part of world - that is exactly what happened. Quickly. Now to the rest of the news...


Winter Storm Warning for 2-5" for bulk of the NC Piedmont starting tomorrow late afternoon (GSP/Warning & RAH/Watch). I'll hope to write again quickly with specific thoughts/amounts but generally onboard with the thinking / scenario. 


SNEAKY SNOW COME AND GO - THEN THE REAL DEAL?

Good morning N.C. Piedmont. Hope you like early AM snow. Might be some excited kids out there.




WWA's (Winter Wx Advisory) posted by NWS GSP for all of the NC Piedmont forecast area (Davie, Rowan, etc) for a quick disturbance moving through in a few hours that could leave anywhere from a dusting to an inch, perhaps 2" if you are closer to CLT or the foothills.

Wouldn't be surprised to see schools cancel b/c timing of what are really just some light snow showers - however will be around sunrise / bus time. Ground temps are cold so if it falls it should stick. If you thought Tuesday was gonna be warm - grab an extra coat.

Most snow should be out of here by mid-morning, if you get much at all. Interesting little system because it has come on strong late...most won't be expecting this I would imagine. Weather guessers were not but you know what they say about that job. NWS WWA out late in the period as stated below. NWS in Raleigh has yet to issue anything but likely they will do the same.


SO, the real news is the snow-storm Wednesday across much of NC. Talking 4+" most places (better if you live near Raleigh/Coast...) Could be higher bust potential in our area because there should be a cut-off zone where it snows/precips less as gulf moisture transports to Atlantic low. Hopefully not us but we usually see such an area in the synoptic setup. Not sure if that is CYA Penn talking. 
Busts hurt people. 
They hurt. 

Graphic (1) from WPC about snow threat (almost 12 hrs old now) and (2) latest high res NAM model run showing general idea / track of storm coming in Wed and headed out by Thursday.







Any-who, will fine tune those thoughts later today (hopefully) if I have time. But Wed PM - Thurs AM time frame is the target. Enjoy any and all snow you get today. And your kids home again too if schools CYA out too. Be safe. NWS Advisory text follows after break. Out.

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Hold Up: NWS WINTER STORM WARNING

This is why Twitter is so popular...just finished other post and now Winter Storm Watch upgraded to Warning. Thankfully / hopefully you don't rely just on me for your breaking news. Text follows.

NWS Snow / Ice Maps



Thoughts: Precip amounts about right but frzra accum is overdone for areas N of Charlotte in my opinion. Assuming 10:1 ratio Davie County more like 6-8, Rowan 6, Charlotte 5, etc. Now back to drawing/finishing my map....I've just written what it will say in pretty colors.

Latest GFS / NAM MOS Guidance

The GFS and and NAM raw text forecasts (MOS) latest. Have put this and some new links on side. CIPS site shows analog guidance and is definitely worth perusing (geez, nerds..). I've included Charlotte, salisbury, Greensboro, And Winston Salem as reference points. Take them with a grain of salt, or however you like raw model text.  After the jump.

Winter Storm Watch

Yes, I know, snow map still to come. Valentine's Day got in the way. I've reprimanded the wife and will get to work...

Main event timing about 6 hrs earlier: Monday evening - Tuesday for the bulk of it

No changes in thinking of 6+" for most of the Piedmont. Could see some minor sleet accumulation / mixed in the further south you are - mainly south of Rowan. Here are the WPC snow progs and the NWS Winter Storm Watch text to keep you occupied.








Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday morning...

* locations...the foothills and Blue Ridge of North Carolina.

* Hazards...heavy snow possible Monday through Tuesday.

* Timing...wind chill values will improve this morning. Snow is expected to develop across the area by Monday afternoon... continuing off and on through Monday night and Tuesday.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches...along with around a tenth of an inch of ice.

* Winds...northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Impacts...low wind chill can cause frost bite on exposed skin. Heavy snow and ice could cause significant travel problems Monday and Tuesday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.Weather.Gov/gsp.




Saturday, February 14, 2015

From This Snow Loving Heart to Yours: Winter Ahead


AT LAST – Winter Weather soon going to be brought to you live here in the N.C. Piedmont.

Quick highlights and then hope to do an update w/snowfall forecast map for storm #1 in a few hours. My wife loves me…

To my N.C. readers I give you not one, not two, but four Valentine's gifts listed in order of occurrence. No returns or refunds. You get what you pay for. Here goes:

1. ARCTIC WINDS BRING THE COLD - arctic air invades tonight & high winds bring wind chills near 0º. Sunday (tomorrow) is first day of sub-freezing air.

2. SNOWSTORM COMING - Monday PM into Wed AM. Widespread 6”+ with higher amounts likely. Should be mainly snow event…

3. BITTER COLD TO HOLD - will struggle to reach 32º with lows below zero possible Thurs/Fri AM.

4. MORE SNOW - late week/ early weekend. Looks a little sloppier but good amount of precipitation of some variety - sleet / snow / freezing rain mix always possible. But early for specific details. A third winter wx event a week from Tuesday possible according to some wx models...

IN SUM, you will be looking at a southern rarity soon - snow on the ground in N.C. for at least a week. Plan on posting a snow-map before 2pm. Happy Valentine's day snow-lovers.

Stay tuned. Out Here.


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

NCZ036-037-056-057-151145-
IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
634 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...COLD WAVE LIKELY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS EARLY SUNDAY.
..MONDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS BY THE END OF MONDAY. AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE DAY.
..TUESDAY... SNOW POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...COLD WAVE LIKELY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR...RESULTING IN BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS.
..FRIDAY...COLD WAVE LIKELY.