Friday, January 22, 2016

Blizzard Turns to Slizzard of 2016

It is fairly obvious that snow accumulations originally forecast can be cut by about 2/3rds in most location and add about 4x amount of sleet. (Slizzard...) The changeover to sleet has irreverently, irreversibly, and irrevocably busted my forecast.

Another thing that concerns me regarding total accumulations is the "dry slot" currently working its way in/over is. 

What is that exactly? Here is the NWS definition: http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=dry%20slot. As the primary low pressure energy/system becomes the coastal low, precipitation is more or less sucked dry over the areas due west of the developing low due to the energy transfer.

Now I'm not saying it's over, just that accumulations (total moisture) will be slimmed down as well. 

So here are current and probably final thoughts:

Davie/Forsyth/Yadkin:
About 2-3" of snow and .5" of sleet so far... Should see more sleet and even some brief freezing rain before a little more snow later evening and into AM.

Total Snow = 3-7" South to NorthWest.
Sleet= 1" generally, which is a lot. 
Freezing Rain= .10"

Rowan/Cabarrus (Joe H.)
More sleet and freezing rain (especially the further south you go) with some snow at the end.

Total Snow = 1- 4" South to NorthWest.
Sleet= approx .75"  
Freezing Rain= .25" - .40" (North to S) 

Other Notes and Asides:
Please post any accumulations and location on blog or FB comments. Time/Place/What ya got etc. 

While a busted forecast in my book, it is very hard to determine where sleet warm noses will set up. Just takes a few degrees difference at 5000-7000' off the ground to change it all.

Problem with sleet is it will take a lot of snow an compact it into nothing so hard to measure total snowfall.

On the flip-side it does give cars and feet more traction (initially) and it's not freezing rain and a threat to power lines. 

With that said I'm going to the corner to cry a little inside and then I'll man up and  keep an eye on things. Keep it reals.