Saturday, February 13, 2016

Presidents Day Storm 2016 Update

Main change to forecast thinking is onset time of precipitation should be about 12 hours sooner. Generally speaking snow should start falling approx midnight - 2AM.

Models still struggling with some of the finer details so expect mixed messages from the NWS and local TV Mets. 

Reason being the low pressure track(s) which dictates timing of the warming is basically all over the place depending on which model one puts their faith in - as you can see in NWS map below which depicts potential low pressure locations and the big "L" is the official NWS guidance. Could be in Indiana or Alabama initially before going to the coast....but it doesn't really matter.
Storms in NC chasing departing cold air rarely come out on the winter weather side. Rain will be the bulk of the precipitation for most areas except far NW Piedmont.


So my model of choice is Penn Blanton's experience and I'll keep forecast as is for now and update tomorrow if there is need to.

Only other note at the moment is that total accumulation could go up in Davie and points N and West a bit and ice (freezing rain) is still the main concern in the NW Piedmont.   

Just not seeing Rowan and points south having to deal with much more than I posted yesterday. All to be wiped away by rain in the end regardless. School is still out folks and work for most looks less likely given earlier start time of snow.

Winter Storm Watches are posted for all counties and you can find text  here: NWS Home