Saturday, February 13, 2016

Presidents' Day Storm 2016


I'll jump right to the point folks - we are looking at a "winter warm-up" storm to start the week with snowfall area wide beginning Monday AM, transitioning to sleet, then freezing rain, and ultimately all rain (temps above 32F) for everyone in the N.C. Piedmont.

Yes, your typical "slop" of a storm, however, by Monday evening most locales shouldn't even have any travel problems or snow on the ground. Using (in my mind...) a Cabarrus-Rowan-Davie South to North axis as far as accumulations.

When/What/Where/Why/School?: 

Snowfall should begin approx 6-9 AM Monday all areas. Exact time TBD.

Snow/Sleet, accumulating 1-3" South to North mixing with and changing to sleet around 10AM in southern areas as warm air moves north.

12-2PM most areas should transition to freezing rain. Expect a glaze around Concord increasing to approx .20 inches in N. Davie County 

4PM Rain, temps above freezing, except Davie County which might be a few hours later, hence higher amounts of ice.

Rain continues through Tuesday AM as temps warm overnight. Your high temperature on Monday will occur at 11:59 PM...

No school Monday. Work, eh, depends on what you do and exact time snow starts.

Fact = all snow that falls will stick as surface temps will be cold from the 48 hours of sub-freezing weather Friday night - Monday.


Nerd alert...
Storm Setup - Left Over Cold Air
As warm air moves in aloft the precip types will change as described above. We lack a parent high pressure system to the North for a classic cold air damming scenario, instead an "in-situ" damming event will occur. An in-situ wedge simply means the very dry (cold) air left from this weekend is our "source". It will take time to saturate and warm the air near the ground from about 10K feet down because at the start of storm the surface dew-point will be 10-15° F (AKA cold/dry) across the Piedmont.
Monday PM
Images above found here: https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/Patterns.php


I'll put a map out sometime this weekend with an update if needed. Ciao.