Thursday, January 5, 2017

FRIDAY UPDATE: SNOWSTORM TONIGHT

FRIDAY UPDATE:

Expect snow totals of 6-8" for all of the Piedmont of N.C. 

Would not surprise me to see areas East of I-85 closer to 8-10" in many spots...

*Heaviest snow will be approx 25 miles north of (an imaginary) a line from Charlotte to Raleigh* 

Major cold to follow into Monday. Temps below freezing until Tuesday. Lows around 0° Sun/Mon.

Timing: No change. Snow showers as early as this evening but the bulk of the storm will be late PM / overnight. Most precipitation should be exiting the Piedmont by noon on Saturday.  

Enjoy the Snow and be safe this weekend.

THURSDAY UPDATE
YES, IT IS STILL GOING TO SNOW...

No major change to current forecast amounts or timing. 

Still expecting a general swath of 4-6" of snow in the Western/Central Piedmont of NC, with some higher amounts likely....generally South of I-40 and East of I-85. Snow will start to fall tomorrow evening with most accumulation occurring overnight Friday into Saturday AM. 

Latest model runs have shifted axis of heaviest snow closer to the Piedmont as expected - however any accumulations exceeding 10-12" will be to the East over the Triangle and Northern Sandhills of NC into SE VA.

National Weather Service Offices in Raleigh and Greenville-Spartanburg have issued Winter Storm Watches that are in effect beginning tomorrow evening through midday Saturday. Expect watches to be upgraded to Winter Storm Storm Warnings as we move into the day tomorrow. 

Again, it should be noted that temperatures will be brutally cold over the next few days (especially Sunday/Mon) with highs at or below 32° Sat-Mon and lows around 0° Monday AM. Expect travel to be impacted and most secondary roads to be slick/snow covered until late Monday.

Stay tuned. 

YES, IT IS GOING TO SNOW...

Quick thoughts on snow potential this weekend, longer post to follow tomorrow most likely.

What: Generally about 4-6" of snow in the Piedmont of NC, with higher amounts eastwards toward the triangle area possible.

When: Snow should start in the late Friday evening time-frame and continue into the morning hours of Saturday.

Where: Almost all of NC and Upstate SC into southern New England

Why: The main two global models used by most forecasters and the NWS - the Euro and GFS - show very different solutions for the Fri-Sat time frame. A lot of uncertainty regarding precip/snow amounts, however I think for those in the Piedmont of NC 4-6" is a good bet, with the error probably being on the low side. I expect models (and later most forecasters in the area) will make a steady shift westward with the axis of heaviest snow as we get closer to Friday.

Temps: One thing is certain - there will be plenty of cold air arriving before the storm and lasting through Tuesday. If we get 4-6" of snow on the ground we could potentially see lows around 0°F Sun PM/Mon AM with highs struggling to get in the upper 20's. Once snow starts late Friday, most areas might not hit freezing the freezing mark again until Tuesday.

Stay tuned...