Emily, Where Are You Going?

That's a good question - currently forecast to be near the east coast of Florida in 2-3 days, then...

Here she is as of 12AM Aug 2nd, 2011:

...JUST A REGULAR DANGEROUS SITUATION...1AM UPDATE

New Tornado Watch #248 Posted @ 1AM; effective until 8AM. 

Expect storms to consolidate/merge into a squall line as they exit the Appalachians and and accelerate heading NNE. Primary threat with ensuing squall line will be straight line winds and embedded tornadoes. Biggest danger will be any storms/supercells that develop ahead of the line. If none materialize, no one will cry about it. Currently expect the main line to approach Rowan approx 3-30AM

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

The SPC has issued a tornado watch that covers Rowan County, effective until 2 AM. 

What the pros out in Oklahoma are thinking (edited):

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM UNTIL 200 AM EDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

TORNADOES OVER PORTIONS OF ERN TN AND AL ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MOVE EWD INTO THE WW AREA THIS EVENING. EWD MIGRATION OF 50-60+ KT LLJ AXIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED AIR MASSD ESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WHEN COUPLED WITH 50-70 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SETUP WILL REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LONG-TRACKED

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF DESTRUCTIVE

A particularly dangerous situation means higher than normal probabilities of tornadoes in a watch area and/or long lived (stronger) tornadoes, or if you want a very vague definition, the SPC wording:

"The "particularly dangerous situation" wording is used in rare situations when long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. This enhanced wording may also accompany severe thunderstorm watches for exceptionally intense and well organized convective wind storms. PDS watches are issued, when in the opinion of the forecaster, the likelihood of significant events is boosted by very volatile atmospheric conditions. Usually this decision is based on a number of atmospheric clues and parameters, so the decision to issue a PDS watch is subjective. There is no hard threshold or criteria. In high risk outlooks PDS watches are issued most often."

For our watch area (which is a big chunk of real estate) the probabilities are as follows:

WT 0241 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        :  80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES         :  70%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%
This begs the question, I think, what is going to happen in Salisbury tonight? If that's what you're reading this for, stop being ridiculous. No one can answer that with any certainty. We will have thunderstorms late tonight, the atmosphere is "ripe" for severe weather; and that is about as exact as one can get until the storms approach and then "now-casting" takes over. Then NWS issues tornado warnings - based on radar indicated rotation or spotter observations. 

After the front passes and the low pressure system responsible for this severe weather outbreak (see maps below) moves East, a windy day is in store as skies become partly cloudy, then clear by sunset as high pressure builds in. Biggest difference will be the drop in humidity and overnight low temps dropping back to seasonal values. 

Current watches and today's storm reports - this is system is bringing severe weather to much of the nation:

She's Coming In Hot

UPDATE:


COMING IN HOTTER. EXPECT WINDS UP TO 70MPH AND HAIL IN ABOUT 10 MINUTES

Severe Thunderstorm Watch In Effect

Here are the preliminary storm reports as of this post  - widespread wind damage from the approaching squall line - should be around Salisbury close to 2:30 AM (a few cells could develop ahead of the main line as well). Loss of daytime heating and mountain crossing should mean weaker but the storms/squall line will still pack a punch. We'll see how much tomorrow... 

Current Radar (Link)

Snow Possible In The Morning?

Update 2:

Snow falling to the north around Greensboro and Winston. Also a shot from Mt. Airy.

Update 1: 

An early morning mixture of rain and snow - probably more rain than snow. Don't expect any accumulations other than on grass if we get a band of all snow briefly. A quick shot as well - 4 hour or so window of precip - out of here by noon. But hey, today is March 28 so the mere fact that we could see snow falling is anomalous. Temps tonight will near freezing depending on how much clearing occurs. It's going to be a damp and chilly/raw day basically. 

Yes. I'm going to post an update later.

Monday & Tuesday - Colder, Wetter - Winter Shenanigans?

   A back door cold front (winds from the NE) will cross the NC Piedmont area Sunday Night/Mon AM, accompanied by low clouds, cool air, and eventually some form of precipitation. Classic cold air damming situation setting up as a potential closed low develops in the plains and moves eastward into the area. The GFS, NAM, and DGEX (latest runs) suggest upper air thermal profiles could support some non-liquid precip, generally around the NC/VA border and points north, but the more bullish projection (NAM currently) has 850mb temps flirting with the sub-zero mark around here late Monday - the common indicator of wintry precip. Closed lows (upper and surface) are typically handled poorly by computer models and meteorologists alike so it will be interesting to watch the model runs and the subsequent NWS forecasts in the next few days.
   Expect at least a day with high temps maxing out in the 40's (probably Tuesday) with all liquid precip. Sunday's high temp will reach the upper 60's/70 degree mark...those caught unaware will be in for a rude/cold awakening Monday into Tuesday before temperatures rebound later in the week. Don't put your warm clothes away yet... Stay tuned.

Big Boom - Severe Thunderstorms Sweep Through

Earliest storm reports from the severe thunderstorm(s) that swept through in a squall line: 

02/28/2011 0525 PM
Salisbury, Rowan County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by trained spotter.
Power lines down at satesville Blvd and Enon chruch Rd

02/28/2011 0525 PM
Salisbury, Rowan County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by trained spotter.
Large roof blocking Statesville Blvd near Hurley school
Rd


02/28/2011 0518 PM
5 miles NW of Salisbury, Rowan County.
Hail e1.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.
Spotter reported up to 1 inch hail NW of Salisbury.

Warm = Storm (Potentially Severe)

I've come to terms with the fact that it is not going to snow anytime soon...

Today is a bit warm for this time of year and very humid also, which means, wait for it...

COLD FRONT APPROACHING

Which also means, wait for it again...

WE ARE GOING TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT

OK. Stop waiting. That's the major news.

IT WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW!!! That's for me.

I expect we will see a squall line with the passage of the cold front this evening with pre-frontal showers/t-storms. (We are in the warm and unstable pre-frontal air mass; AKA warm front passed yesterday.)

Here is a link to the SPC homepage, which I added to favorite links on the upper right. Keep an eye on the latest severe thunderstorm watches and outlooks throughout today and this evening because I supposedly have a job and can't update all day.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Homepage.

Also, here is a good page to learn more about thunderstorms: SPC Thunderstorm FAQ

Winter - Is it Over?

Unfortunately it looks like it fellow winter fans. *This does not mean it may never drop below freezing or never snow again this winter* But, the odds are stacked against a cold pattern developing again as the northern jet stream (and attendant trough) has pulled north and will then back into the western U.S. in the next week. So what we will experience for the next 2 weeks at least is called "zonal flow", a fancy term that means our sensible weather will predominately come from the West or SW, not source regions for cold air masses by a long shot.

Moral of the story:

1. It is going to be warm for the foreseeable future - unfortunately my magic 8 ball says try again later when I ask how long that means - so we'll call it the next 14 days...

2. I'm going to be blogging less because the weather is not interesting sans cold or storms.

3. In other exciting news (perhaps you noticed) I am now broadcasting current conditions from my super secret weather nerd hideout located somewhere (maybe) in the Fulton Heights neighborhood of Salisbury. Basically I stepped up my weather game...

Until I See Cold. Penn. Out.

Models Go Dry But I'm Going High - Snow Forecast

Misleading title amount-wise, but if you look at weather models (doesn't everybody?) you would not expect to see a flake fall tonight...I'm betting they're wrong. So is our CYA NWS forecast office, who issued a winter wx advisory for Rowan tonight, while **Davidson County (different office) is not under one. Only the government...

My forecast for Rowan and surrounding counties tonight/early AM:

Quick shot of snow occurring around/after 10pm and only lasting a few hours. Temps should quickly drop, especially when snow starts, so the obvious question is how much precipitation actually falls...which doesn't look to be much in the scheme of things.

Expect 1/2" area wide with amounts increasing the further south you are from Salisbury. Depending on any heavier showers/bands, would not be surprised if some areas picked up a quick 2", again, best chance of that occurring would be south and east of the Salisbury megalopolis. 



Chilly tomorrow but temps will get above freezing, road issues should be minor, and then a cold night again before we see the aforeblogged (copyright on that word) warm-up.

Penn. Out.